Electrical contractor acquisitions sit in a 2.5×–4.5× SDE band. Top-of-band placement is structural — recurring service-contract revenue, multi-licensed technician bench, and documented backlog.
cumulative copper inflation since Feb 2020. Fixed-price contracts written 2023–2024 compressed forward gross margin by 12% in wire-and-conduit-heavy work.
SDE band stable. Recurring service share + W-2 master depth are the top-of-band determinants in Q1 2026; data-center pipeline narratives do not move the multiple.
SBA fall-through cause: owner-electrician normalization compressing DSCR below 1.25× after replacement master labor is restored at $90K–$140K loaded.
of deals had master electrician license held solely by exiting owner. No licensed replacement on staff at LOI.
Copper inflation is the single largest trailing-period distortion factor in 2026 electrical deal flow. 83.7% cumulative inflation since February 2020, with COMEX trading at $5.44/lb late March 2026 ahead of the April 2 Section 232 tariff effective date. Fixed-price contracts written in 2023–2024 are compressing forward gross margin by 12% on wire-and-conduit-heavy work — re-cut margins at the trailing-12-month COMEX average before pricing.
NEC 2026 codifies NFPA 70E arc-flash labeling (Article 110.16) on all non-residential service and feeder equipment. Compliance gaps on installed-base commercial work appeared in 64% of commercial-weighted deals reviewed — a forward retrofit liability that must be priced as capex reserve before LOI. Combined with the IBEW–NECA 2024–2028 wage escalator and the structural electrician shortage, the pattern points to sustained labor-and-compliance cost inflation buyers should price into forward DSCR rather than trail with historical curves.
Read the full Q1 2026 Atlas →The electrical research stack.
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Q1 2026 Industry Atlas
Trailing-12-month band, structural conditions, sources, and methodology. Quarterly. Dated. Citable. Built to be forwarded by lenders.
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The four-pillar lens applied to electrical contractor acquisitions. Structural failure modes. Pre-LOI verification priorities. Master spoke for the vertical.
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