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TREE CARE · Q1 2026 · 1.8×–3.2× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=58, BizBuySell trailing-12-month closed deals)TREE CARE · Storm/emergency revenue presented as steady-state in 58% of deals · 2–4× steady-state in active storm yearTREE CARE · EMR above 1.0 in 23% of deals · NCCI Class 0106/0105 among highest worker-comp ratesTREE CARE · Equipment appraisal at 38% of book value on average · Book overstates operational FMV by 40–70%TREE CARE · ISA Certified Arborist concentrated in owner / one tech in 44% of deals · Municipal contract riskTREE CARE · Industry size $30B (IBISWorld 2024) · 5.8% CAGR 2020–2025 · Climate + invasive species tailwindTREE CARE · BLS 37-3013 median wage $48,250 (May 2024) · Among highest-fatality occupations per BLS CFOITREE CARE · Davey Tree (ESOP, ~$1.7B rev) · Bartlett (family) · SavATree (KKR 2024) · Asplundh (utility) leadTREE CARE · BrightView (KKR) tree-care segment · Cross-trade landscape platforms include tree scopeTREE CARE · USDA APHIS EAB + Spotted Lanternfly programs drive specialty plant health care demandJAPAN · 造園業 / 樹木管理 GC-absorbed structure · 樹木医 + 造園施工管理技士 credentials · 1.5×–2.5× EBITDAMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=58 SMB transactionsTREE CARE · Q1 2026 · 1.8×–3.2× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=58, BizBuySell trailing-12-month closed deals)TREE CARE · Storm/emergency revenue presented as steady-state in 58% of deals · 2–4× steady-state in active storm yearTREE CARE · EMR above 1.0 in 23% of deals · NCCI Class 0106/0105 among highest worker-comp ratesTREE CARE · Equipment appraisal at 38% of book value on average · Book overstates operational FMV by 40–70%TREE CARE · ISA Certified Arborist concentrated in owner / one tech in 44% of deals · Municipal contract riskTREE CARE · Industry size $30B (IBISWorld 2024) · 5.8% CAGR 2020–2025 · Climate + invasive species tailwindTREE CARE · BLS 37-3013 median wage $48,250 (May 2024) · Among highest-fatality occupations per BLS CFOITREE CARE · Davey Tree (ESOP, ~$1.7B rev) · Bartlett (family) · SavATree (KKR 2024) · Asplundh (utility) leadTREE CARE · BrightView (KKR) tree-care segment · Cross-trade landscape platforms include tree scopeTREE CARE · USDA APHIS EAB + Spotted Lanternfly programs drive specialty plant health care demandJAPAN · 造園業 / 樹木管理 GC-absorbed structure · 樹木医 + 造園施工管理技士 credentials · 1.5×–2.5× EBITDAMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=58 SMB transactions
Industry Intelligence · Tree Care · Q1 2026
Updated · 2026-05-02Refresh · QuarterlyAuthor · Avery Hastings, CPA

Tree care business acquisitions sit in a 1.8×–3.2× SDE band. Top-of-band placement requires certified arborist depth, documented recurring maintenance contracts, and a credentialed safety record.

Q1 2026 headline read
Quarterly · Updated 2026-05-02
PILLAR 01
Earnings Quality
58%
Q1 2026 baseline

of deals presented storm/emergency removal revenue as steady-state SDE. Normalize to 5-year average — storm revenue is 2–4× steady-state in an active year.

PILLAR 02
Pricing
1.8×–3.2×
→ Band held

Among lowest-band home services verticals. ISA-certified arborist bench depth and commercial contract book are the top-of-band determinants.

PILLAR 03
Fundability
23%
Q1 2026 baseline

of deals had EMR above 1.0 — the SBA workers comp threshold that restricts lender appetite. High-claims history is a direct fundability constraint.

PILLAR 04
Transferability
#1
Q1 2026 baseline

Top risk: equipment appraised at 38% of book value on average when independently inspected. Crane and bucket truck fleet requires physical inspection before LOI.

This quarter in
Tree Care
Q1 2026 · Jan–Mar

Equipment book value vs appraised value is the most systematically mispriced element in tree care deals. Cranes, bucket trucks, and chippers used in storm response and high-canopy removal accumulate wear that outpaces GAAP depreciation schedules. A crane on the books at $180K may appraise at $65K. A buyer who does not obtain an independent equipment appraisal before LOI is making a capital allocation assumption that the lender's appraiser will correct at commitment stage — at maximum disruption to the deal timeline.

Storm normalization requires 5 years of revenue data, not 3. A 3-year average that includes two active storm years is still a distorted baseline in a market with cyclical storm patterns. Request year-by-year revenue broken into: (1) scheduled pruning and maintenance, (2) plant health care, (3) commercial contracts, (4) emergency/storm removal. The ratio of steady-state categories to emergency categories is the core underwriting question. Any seller who cannot produce this breakdown has an information gap that should affect how you structure the deal.

Read the full Q1 2026 Atlas →
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The tree care research stack.

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Acquidex evaluates tree care business acquisitions against the same neutral framework — Earnings Quality, Pricing, Fundability, Transferability — that lenders, brokers, and CPAs read. Submit a public listing URL or a CIM and we'll return a four-pillar teardown.

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  1. Q1 2026Storm Normalization, EMR Friction, and the Equipment-Book-vs-Appraisal GapRead →
Methodology

Acquidex v1.0, §3.4 (Earnings Quality), §3.3 (Transferability), §5.1 (Add-Back Stripping per SBA SOP 50 10 8). Methodology paper forthcoming Q3 2026.

Sample

Window: 2025-05 → 2026-04 (trailing 12 months). BizBuySell closed-deal data, IBBA Market Pulse Q3–4 2025 and Q1 2026, Pratt's Stats SMB transaction database, Acquidex direct deal observations

Refresh

Quarterly. Last update: 2026-05-02. Atlas archive at /intel/tree-care/atlas.

Author

Avery Hastings, CPA. Tokyo-based; SMB and lower-middle-market acquisitions in the US and Japan.

Acquidex · Industry Intelligence · 2026
AQX-IR-TRC-2026Q1 · v1.0
Tree Care Acquisition Intelligence: Multiples Band, Atlas, Playbook, Scored Deals | Acquidex