HVAC trades in a 2.8×–5.0× SDE band. Top-of-band runs on three things: cohort-verified Comfort Club retention, W-2 master-license depth, and entity-named OEM dealer status.
of Acquidex-reviewed deals had Earnings Quality compressed by IRA pull-forward. Q2 diligence shifts from credit expiration to rebate eligibility and post-credit normalization; Comfort Advisor replacement-cost exclusion remains a separate 45% internal-sample finding.
SDE band held because the named transaction publishers did not release a newer Q2 HVAC band. Dealer status and W-2 license depth remain the top-of-band determinants.
of Acquidex-observed SBA fall-throughs traced to 1099 Qualifier license arrangements failing lender continuity review. Still an internal-sample signal, not a market-wide rate.
of Acquidex-reviewed deals had master license held by a 1099 Qualifier rather than a W-2 employee. Invisible in seller org charts.
Q2 did not produce a new named third-party HVAC transaction band. The honest update is a carry-forward: 2.8×–5.0× remains the published SMB SDE band until Sundance, BizBuySell, First Page Sage, or another named source releases a newer HVAC band. The changed issue is diligence, not headline pricing.
EPA's final rule moved the R-410A inventory trap door, and DOE's HEEHR notice narrowed the federal heat-pump rebate channel. Q2 buyers should re-underwrite inventory eligibility and rebate-driven install revenue before applying the unchanged band. Acquidex percentage findings remain labeled as n=47 internal observations, not market rates.
Read the full Q2 2026 Atlas →The HVAC research stack.
Atlas for the numbers. Playbook for the framework. Apply it to the deal in front of you.
Q2 2026 Industry Atlas
Trailing-12-month band, structural conditions, sources, and methodology. Quarterly. Dated. Citable. Built to be forwarded by lenders.
Underwriting Playbook
The four-pillar lens applied to HVAC service business acquisitions. Structural failure modes. Pre-LOI verification priorities. Master spoke for the vertical.
Score a Listing
Run a specific HVAC listing against the four-pillar framework — earnings quality, pricing, fundability, transferability — before you sign an LOI. Same evaluation each party at the table reads.
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Acquidex evaluates HVAC service business acquisitions against the same neutral framework — Earnings Quality, Pricing, Fundability, Transferability — that lenders, brokers, and CPAs read. Submit a public listing URL or a CIM and we'll return a four-pillar teardown.
Consented teardowns publish here as case studies. Acquidex never names the seller, broker, or exact location without explicit written consent.
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Quarterly research, archived.
Every Atlas keeps a permanent dated URL. Cited reports never break. Compare bands across quarters; track structural shifts over time.
- Q2 2026The Band Held; the Regulatory Trap Door MovedJul 14, 2026Read →
- Q1 2026Market Timing Sets the Trap; Operator Quality Determines Who Survives ItMay 2, 2026Read →
- Q3 2026Next scheduled roll-forwardOct 2026Scheduled