HVAC trades in a 2.8×–5.0× SDE band. Top-of-band runs on three things: cohort-verified Comfort Club retention, W-2 master-license depth, and entity-named OEM dealer status.
of deals had Earnings Quality compressed by IRA pull-forward — the headline trailing-period distortion factor. Comfort Advisor replacement-cost exclusion appeared in a separate 45% (see Finding 03).
SDE band stable; dispersion size-driven. Dealer status and W-2 license depth are the top-of-band determinants in Q1 2026.
of SBA fall-throughs traced to 1099 Qualifier license arrangements failing lender continuity review. Ahead of DSCR failure and IRA pull-forward normalization combined.
of deals reviewed had master license held by a 1099 Qualifier rather than a W-2 employee. Invisible in seller org charts.
The IRA 25C and 25D credits terminated December 31, 2025 (One Big Beautiful Bill, P.L. 119-21). Every 2024–2025 trailing period now contains confirmed pull-forward demand that will not repeat. Heat pump install share above 40% in trailing revenue is the normalization trigger — verify against manufacturer warranty registration data.
The 1099 Qualifier arrangement — where a non-employee licensed master is paid $500–$2,500/month to serve as the entity's named license holder — appeared in 38% of deals reviewed. SBA underwriters are increasingly treating this as failed license continuity, even when state law permits the arrangement. Verify W-2 vs. 1099 status before LOI.
Read the full Q1 2026 Atlas →The HVAC research stack.
Atlas for the numbers. Playbook for the framework. Apply it to the deal in front of you.
Q1 2026 Industry Atlas
Trailing-12-month band, structural conditions, sources, and methodology. Quarterly. Dated. Citable. Built to be forwarded by lenders.
Underwriting Playbook
The four-pillar lens applied to HVAC service business acquisitions. Structural failure modes. Pre-LOI verification priorities. Master spoke for the vertical.
Score a Listing
Run a specific HVAC listing against the four-pillar framework — earnings quality, pricing, fundability, transferability — before you sign an LOI. Same evaluation each party at the table reads.
Apply the framework
Run a HVAC listing through the four-pillar lens.
Acquidex evaluates HVAC service business acquisitions against the same neutral framework — Earnings Quality, Pricing, Fundability, Transferability — that lenders, brokers, and CPAs read. Submit a public listing URL or a CIM and we'll return a four-pillar teardown.
Consented teardowns publish here as case studies. Acquidex never names the seller, broker, or exact location without explicit written consent.
Get the Atlas in your inbox.
One quarterly research drop per vertical we cover. The full multiples band, the structural conditions, the executive summary. No marketing emails, no daily digests. The Atlas drops, you get the Atlas.
No marketing emails. Quarterly Atlas only. Unsubscribe with one click. We don’t share or sell email addresses.
Quarterly research, archived.
Every Atlas keeps a permanent dated URL. Cited reports never break. Compare bands across quarters; track structural shifts over time.