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HVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sampleHVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sample
Scored Listing·HVAC·Updated 2026-05-02
Upper bandComposite

6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Two W-2 master license holders on staff (neither the seller). 450 Comfort Club agreements at $429/yr average (91% trailing renewal rate verified by cohort). AOR attach rate 41% per ServiceTitan Membership Summary Report — organic growth without marketing dependency. Trane Comfort Specialist status: territory rep confirmed re-application process is 30-day standard; current volume (142 units/yr) exceeds TCS Prime threshold. Owner performing < 8 hrs/wk primarily in management/estimating role. A2L safety training current for all six field techs. R-410A inventory 7 months forward demand — within range. No IRA pull-forward detected: heat pump share consistent at 28–32% across trailing 36 months.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

Buyer signed LOI at 4.8× on normalized SDE. DSCR 1.71× base case; 1.38× under concurrent stress (TCS status delay + 5% Comfort Club attrition spike). Closed at original price. Trane TCS re-application completed 22 days post-close.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Upper-band placement on all four pillars: Earnings Quality (two W-2 licenses, owner out of billable rotation), Pricing (verified cohort retention + AOR attach justify top-of-band multiple), Fundability (DSCR holds under stress), Transferability (W-2 license bench depth, no single-Qualifier fragility, AOR attach rate not owner-dependent). This is the structural template that justifies 4.5×–5.0× in the current HVAC market.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro — HVAC Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex