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HVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactionsHVAC · Q1 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band held quarter-over-quarter (n=123, BizBuySell/Sundance)HVAC · IRA 25C/25D credits terminated Dec 31 2025 (P.L. 119-21) · Pull-forward normalization 12–22% on 2024–2025 trailing periodsHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Q2 deals · SBA fall-through driver in 62% of failed underwritesHVAC · AIM Act R-410A → A2L transition · Stranded inventory haircut typical in 31% of deals with field-van stockHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · Industry size $135B (IBISWorld 2025) · 4.5% CAGR 2020–2025 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementHVAC · Comfort Club retention 78–92% across sample · Above 85% supports top-third placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentJAPAN · ~15K active 冷凍機械責任者 (Refrigerating Machine Engineer) certifications nationwide (JIRFE 2024)JAPAN · Aggregate regulatory compliance cost ¥30–50M on a ¥500M revenue HVAC contractor (6–10% of revenue)METHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-05 → 2026-04 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 SMB transactions
Scored Listing·HVAC·Updated 2026-05-02
Upper bandComposite

6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Two W-2 master license holders on staff (neither the seller). 450 Comfort Club agreements at $429/yr average (91% trailing renewal rate verified by cohort). AOR attach rate 41% per ServiceTitan Membership Summary Report — organic growth without marketing dependency. Trane Comfort Specialist status: territory rep confirmed re-application process is 30-day standard; current volume (142 units/yr) exceeds TCS Prime threshold. Owner performing < 8 hrs/wk primarily in management/estimating role. A2L safety training current for all six field techs. R-410A inventory 7 months forward demand — within range. No IRA pull-forward detected: heat pump share consistent at 28–32% across trailing 36 months.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

Buyer signed LOI at 4.8× on normalized SDE. DSCR 1.71× base case; 1.38× under concurrent stress (TCS status delay + 5% Comfort Club attrition spike). Closed at original price. Trane TCS re-application completed 22 days post-close.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Upper-band placement on all four pillars: Earnings Quality (two W-2 licenses, owner out of billable rotation), Pricing (verified cohort retention + AOR attach justify top-of-band multiple), Fundability (DSCR holds under stress), Transferability (W-2 license bench depth, no single-Qualifier fragility, AOR attach rate not owner-dependent). This is the structural template that justifies 4.5×–5.0× in the current HVAC market.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro — HVAC Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex