Scored HVAC listings.
Anonymized observations from real HVAC service business acquisitions evaluated against the four-pillar framework. Each entry reports what was observed and what happened. Neutral evaluation; no recommendations.
3 scored listings
Q1 2026
01 · Mid-band
3-tech Carrier FAD shop, North Texas suburban market
Observed: Carrier FAD with 200 Comfort Club + 80 PM-only agreements. 1099 Qualifier license arrangement. IRA pull-forward in trailing install revenue. Normalized DSCR clears at repriced acquisition cost.
Outcome: Buyer renegotiated from $860K (4.0× broker SDE of $215K) to $470K (4.0× on normalized SDE of $117K). Structural levers: Qualifier consent-to-assignment as closing condition, Carrier FAD territory-rep confirmation pre-LOI, R-410A inventory working capital adjustment. Base-case DSCR 1.52× at repriced level; concurrent stress (FAD revocation + Qualifier exit) produced 0.96× — resolved by license-continuity escrow.
Composite →02 · Lower band
2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license
Observed: Owner holds sole master license with no W-2 replacement and no Qualifier consent. Section 608 recovery log gaps identified. Workers comp misclassified under 5183. DSCR fails at any structurally feasible acquisition price.
Outcome: SBA lender declined to underwrite. License continuity could not be documented. Section 608 exposure quantified at potential $37,500–$124,426 per violation per day (40 CFR 19.4) — recovery log gaps representing multiple potential violations. Workers comp reclassification reserve estimated at $28K–$45K. Deal passed.
Composite →03 · Upper band
6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro
Observed: Two W-2 master licenses on staff. 450 Comfort Club agreements at 91% retention. Trane TCS status confirmed transferable by territory rep. AOR attach rate 41%. Normalized SDE held on all four owner-tech functions.
Outcome: Buyer signed LOI at 4.8× on normalized SDE. DSCR 1.71× base case; 1.38× under concurrent stress (TCS status delay + 5% Comfort Club attrition spike). Closed at original price. Trane TCS re-application completed 22 days post-close.
Composite →
Listings above are anonymized composites pending the publication of consented case studies. Each scored listing has its own URL — citable, shareable, long-tail-SEO eligible. Composites preserve the structural pattern without identifying the specific deal, seller, or broker.
How to read these
What each scored listing reports.
Band placement
Where in the multiples band the deal sat — upper, mid, or lower third. Tied to the structural conditions in the Atlas.
Observed
The specific structural conditions documented in diligence — the four pillars applied to the specific deal.
Outcome
What happened — closed, repriced, financing fell through, walked. We report. We do not claim the score "told you to" do anything.