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HVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sampleHVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sample
Scored Listings · Index·HVAC·Q2 2026·Updated 2026-07-14

Scored HVAC listings.

Anonymized observations from real HVAC service business acquisitions evaluated against the four-pillar framework. Each entry reports what was observed and what happened. Neutral evaluation; no recommendations.

See where any listing sits against the framework. Same neutral evaluation each party at the table reads.

3 scored listings

Q2 2026

  1. 01 · Mid-band

    3-tech Carrier FAD shop, North Texas suburban market

    Observed: Carrier FAD with 200 Comfort Club + 80 PM-only agreements. 1099 Qualifier license arrangement. IRA pull-forward in trailing install revenue. Normalized DSCR clears at repriced acquisition cost.

    Outcome: Buyer renegotiated from $860K (4.0× broker SDE of $215K) to $470K (4.0× on normalized SDE of $117K). Structural levers: Qualifier consent-to-assignment as closing condition, Carrier FAD territory-rep confirmation pre-LOI, R-410A inventory working capital adjustment. Base-case DSCR 1.52× at repriced level; concurrent stress (FAD revocation + Qualifier exit) produced 0.96× — resolved by license-continuity escrow.

    Composite →

  2. 02 · Lower band

    2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license

    Observed: Owner holds sole master license with no W-2 replacement and no Qualifier consent. Section 608 recovery log gaps identified. Workers comp misclassified under 5183. DSCR fails at any structurally feasible acquisition price.

    Outcome: SBA lender declined to underwrite. License continuity could not be documented. Section 608 exposure quantified at potential $37,500–$124,426 per violation per day (40 CFR 19.4) — recovery log gaps representing multiple potential violations. Workers comp reclassification reserve estimated at $28K–$45K. Deal passed.

    Composite →

  3. 03 · Upper band

    6-tech Trane Comfort Specialist, Sunbelt metro

    Observed: Two W-2 master licenses on staff. 450 Comfort Club agreements at 91% retention. Trane TCS status confirmed transferable by territory rep. AOR attach rate 41%. Normalized SDE held on all four owner-tech functions.

    Outcome: Buyer signed LOI at 4.8× on normalized SDE. DSCR 1.71× base case; 1.38× under concurrent stress (TCS status delay + 5% Comfort Club attrition spike). Closed at original price. Trane TCS re-application completed 22 days post-close.

    Composite →

Listings above are anonymized composites pending the publication of consented case studies. Each scored listing has its own URL — citable, shareable, long-tail-SEO eligible. Composites preserve the structural pattern without identifying the specific deal, seller, or broker.

How to read these

What each scored listing reports.

  • Band placement

    Where in the multiples band the deal sat — upper, mid, or lower third. Tied to the structural conditions in the Atlas.

  • Observed

    The specific structural conditions documented in diligence — the four pillars applied to the specific deal.

  • Outcome

    What happened — closed, repriced, financing fell through, walked. We report. We do not claim the score "told you to" do anything.

Scored HVAC Listings: Anonymized Deal Observations Against the Four-Pillar Framework | Acquidex