3-tech Carrier FAD shop, North Texas suburban market
§ 01 · Observed
What was documented in diligence.
Carrier Factory Authorized Dealer status confirmed. Agreement book 200 Comfort Club at $389/yr (88% retention) and 80 PM-only at $179/yr (62% retention). Master license held by 1099 Qualifier at $1,200/month. AOR attach rate 24% — below the 35% threshold for organic growth. Trailing 24-month changeout revenue included 24 IRA-incentivized heat pump installs vs. 9 in the 2022–2023 baseline. R-410A inventory at approximately 14 months forward demand. Owner performing 12 hrs/wk service repair and 8 hrs/wk Comfort Advisor in-home estimates at 32% close rate.
§ 02 · Outcome
What happened.
Buyer renegotiated from $860K (4.0× broker SDE of $215K) to $470K (4.0× on normalized SDE of $117K). Structural levers: Qualifier consent-to-assignment as closing condition, Carrier FAD territory-rep confirmation pre-LOI, R-410A inventory working capital adjustment. Base-case DSCR 1.52× at repriced level; concurrent stress (FAD revocation + Qualifier exit) produced 0.96× — resolved by license-continuity escrow.
§ 03 · Structural Pattern
How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.
Mid-band placement driven by real Comfort Club retention (88%) offset by 1099 Qualifier fragility, owner-dependent Comfort Advisor function, and confirmed IRA pull-forward. The repricing gap between broker SDE ($215K) and normalized SDE ($117K) — a 45% compression — is the canonical HVAC normalization pattern for 2024–2025 deal vintage.
This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.
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