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HVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sampleHVAC · Q2 2026 · 2.8×–5.0× SDE band carried forward unchanged (n=123, Sundance/BizBuySell)HVAC · BizBuySell Q3 2021–Q2 2026 table · 0.60 revenue multiple / 2.83 cash-flow multiple / $750,000 median sale price · Atlas band heldHVAC · EPA AIM Act reconsideration final rule · Eligible pre-2025 R-410A inventory no longer automatically stranded by the former Jan 1 2026 install cutoffHVAC · DOE Program Notice 26-2 · HEEHR fuel-switching rebates narrowed; insulation and air sealing sequence ahead of HVAC upgradesHVAC · 1099 Qualifier arrangements appeared in 38% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · n=47 internal sample, not market-wide rateHVAC · Comfort Advisor function excluded from owner add-backs in 45% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · $65K–$110K replacement cost typicalHVAC · R-410A field-stock risk appeared in 31% of Acquidex-reviewed deals · Q2 diligence is documentation and SKU agingHVAC · Industry size $159.4B (IBISWorld 2026) · 2.6% CAGR 2021–2026 · ~87% of installed base sub-$10M contractorHVAC · Master-license depth · 2+ W-2 masters correlates with 4.2×–5.0× upper-band placementJAPAN · METI/MOE 2018–2022 surveys · >60% of fluorocarbon refrigerants left in disposed AC equipmentMETHODOLOGY · Acquidex v1.0 · Sample window 2025-08 → 2026-07 · Trailing 12 months · n=123 public transaction source / n=47 Acquidex internal sample
Scored Listing·HVAC·Updated 2026-04-27
Lower bandComposite

2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license

§ 01 · Observed

What was documented in diligence.

Owner holds the only HVAC master license in the operating jurisdiction. No licensed employee on staff, no Qualifier arrangement in place. Section 608 refrigerant recovery log showed R-410A purchases from distributor with no corresponding disposal log entries for trailing 18 months — approximately 180 lbs unaccounted. Workers comp audit reports showed HVAC payroll classified under NCCI 5183 (Plumbing) for trailing 2 years. Service agreement book: 95 PM-only agreements, no Comfort Club tier. AOR attach rate not tracked.

§ 02 · Outcome

What happened.

SBA lender declined to underwrite. License continuity could not be documented. Section 608 exposure quantified at potential $37,500–$124,426 per violation per day (40 CFR 19.4) — recovery log gaps representing multiple potential violations. Workers comp reclassification reserve estimated at $28K–$45K. Deal passed.

§ 03 · Structural Pattern

How this deal fits the four-pillar framework.

Three concurrent disqualifying conditions: (1) sole owner-held license with no transfer path, (2) Section 608 recovery log audit failure with quantifiable EPA exposure, (3) NCCI class code misclassification with back-premium liability. Any one of these is individually disqualifying at standard SBA underwriting; all three together produce a deal that fails regardless of pricing.

This is an anonymized composite drawn from observable structural patterns in the sample window. It is not a specific deal. The structural pattern, band placement, and outcome reflect commonly observed combinations; a future consented case study will replace this entry.

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2-tech shop, Southeast market, Qualifier-only license — HVAC Deal Teardown | Acquidex | Acquidex